New Zealand

New Zealand Election: Will Labour Ride Jacindamania to Victory?

Two weeks ago, New Zealand's general election was on track to be anything but exciting. The National Party, led now by Prime Minister Bill English, has shepherded the country through eight years of steady, uneventful post-crisis growth. And two weeks ago it appeared certain Kiwis would hand stodgy-but-safe National another mandate. The party was polling a full 20 points ahead of the opposition Labour Party.Then on July 31, Labour leader Andrew Little announced he was resigning and leaving the pa... Continue Reading

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Africa Elections Kenya Security

Kenya Decides

In Tuesday's general election, Kenyans will cast their votes for president, parliamentarians, and thousands of local representatives. The presidential race pits incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's first president, against former prime minister and perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta, one of Kenya's wealthiest men, has pushed forward high-profile development and infrastructure projects in his four years in office. But many Kenyans are dissatisfied with high unemployment,... Continue Reading

Digital Campaign kenya
Policy Global Macro

The Scoreboard: U.S. Debt-Ceiling Anxiety Returns

To build the Global Macro Scoreboard, we identified 34 issues driving global markets (see the master list at the bottom). We then built a signal for each based on digital traffic (in every available language) relevant to that issue. The Scoreboard shows which signals correlated most strongly to a master signal covering all of the issues. (The strength of that correlation is represented as a percentage on the vertical axis). In other words, the Scoreboard displays the 16 issues that this week gar... Continue Reading

scoreboard

Political Risk Moves Markets in Different Ways

You would think a disruptive mass protest would negatively affect a country’s market and asset prices. But recent political unrest around the globe suggests this isn’t necessarily true.  Markets are quickly shrugging off political risk associated with both peaceful and violent unrest around the world, underscoring how hard it is for global macro strategists to know when civil disruptions will rattle investor confidence.    Predata tracks digital activity and engageme... Continue Reading

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Chaebol Reform Tops Public Interest in Economic Plan

On Tuesday, newly-elected President Moon Jae-in released a five-year economic plan. It promised a "complete paradigm shift" that includes expanding the social safety net, increasing economic opportunity, and combating unfair business practices. That last point means reforming the chaebol, South Korea's family-run, politically-wired conglomerates. They include Korea's most lucrative brands: Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and Lotte. Chaebol reform was a central pledge of Moon's campaign. His predecessor, P... Continue Reading

Chaebol Flag

Has China Lost Interest in Pyongyang's Provocations?

In two July tests, North Korea proved it has the capability to hit the continental United States with a ballistic missile. Alarm bells sounded in the West. But in China, by the measure of online conversation about North Korea and its WMD program, the tests were not perceived as particularly significant to the bilateral relationship. Historically, the Predata signal that tracks DPRK-China relations shown above has reacted emphatically to Pyongyang's provocations. That these latest, dramatic launc... Continue Reading

Low Chinese Interest in ICBM Launches
Emmanuel Macron France Labor Reform Loi Travail

French Labor Reform Opponents May Skip Summer Vacation

Is there anything standing in Emmanuel Macron's way? Following a convincing result over Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, and his party's historic performance in legislative elections that gave his government the largest majority in the history of the Fifth Republic, there remain few procedural obstacles to the young centrist's plans to reform the country. While there is a vocal – albeit small – leftist opposition in parliament, the loudest voice against any possibl... Continue Reading

Labor Law Unrest Risk

Despite Temer Corruption Indictment, Government Calm and Carrying On

A recent lack of notable activity in Predata Government and Economy signals suggests the president and his unpopular economic reform agenda may weather blockbuster corruption charges. On May 17, the leak of a recording of President Temer discussing bribes with a meatpacking tycoon caused Predata Economy and Government volatility signals to surge, reflecting increased attention to the scandal and heightened expectation that the revelation could sink Brazil's embattled president and his economic r... Continue Reading

South Africa Zuma

South Africa: President Zuma on the Back Foot (Again), but Replacement Remains Uncertain

Having survived the meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on May 26-28 where his removal was discussed, President Zuma probably hoped for a respite. The respite, however, turned out to be very brief as questions about his competency and probity forcibly resurfaced in early June.... Continue Reading

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Iran-Saudi Rivalry Saudi Arabia Qatar Iran

Qatar the Outcast

ON MAY 14, Predata observed that, while the war of words between Tehran and Riyadh had been heating up, the reaction of Persian-language and Arabic-language audiences to this increase in threatening rhetoric was muted. Four weeks later, several developments suggest that the potential for an expansion of the two countries’ proxy war may have grown. On May 23, the government of Bahrain cracked down on Shia protestors – resulting in five deaths and hundreds of arrests. Predictably, while Saudi Ara... Continue Reading

iran saudi june 11