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PoliticsMarketsSecurityU.S. and CanadaEuropeMiddle EastAsia

The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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SecurityAsia

Hong Kong Sparks Taiwan Volatility

Online activity related to cross-strait relations spikes amid extradition bill protests.

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Over the past week, more than a million Hong Kong residents have taken to the streets to oppose a bill that would allow the extradition of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese mainla...

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PoliticsLatin America

Guatemala Votes

With anti-corruption frontrunner disqualified, voters look for options.

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As rising numbers of Central American migrants arrive at the US border seeking asylum, the discussion in the United States has focused on Mexico. Relatively little attention has be...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaLatin America

The Mexican Tariff Reaction

Signals suggest White House tariff threat may be more serious than markets assume

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At the end of last week, President Trump announced that starting June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports unless the country alleviated the...

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PoliticsAsia

The Trade War Enters a New Phase

Digital indicators suggest observers are bracing for a protracted, uncertain conflict.

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This month, the US-China trade war escalated. After talks broke down, Washington announced it would impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods and it effectively banned Huawei, the...

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PoliticsEurope

For Britain, It's the Economy Stupid

European Parliamentary elections and Brexit politics dominate headlines, but concerns about the UK economy are rising.

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This Thursday, the UK will vote in European elections, a poll that for British voters was never supposed to happen but for Brexit’s delay until October. The circumstances of the el...

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SecurityMiddle East

Are Iranian Proxies Mobilizing?

Digital realm erupts over possibility of regional confrontation.

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For a month, the United States has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran. At the end of April it ended waivers to sanctions for nations that imported Iranian oil. After Tehran announce...

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SecurityMiddle East

On the Ropes, ISIS Leader Surfaces

A rare video of Baghdadi emerged at a low point for the terror group, but online interest in ISIS' preferred explosive is rising.

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On April 29, ISIS released a video featuring the group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It was the first video of the self-styled Caliph of the Islamic State since June 2014, and it ...

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MarketsAsia

An Uncertain Era

Amid the coronation of a new emperor, fears about the future of the Japanese economy are surfacing

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Today, Emperor Akihito, who is 85, becomes the first Japanese emperor in two centuries to abdicate. To commemorate the enthronement of his son, Japan will hold a 10-day holiday, co...

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SecurityAsia

Surmounting the Impasse

Signals show momentum for diplomatic progress may be building in Korea

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Since the late February Hanoi summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim ended in impasse, negotiations on the Korean peninsula have reportedly been stalled. Two Predata signa...

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SecurityAfricaMiddle East

Arab Spring 2.0?

Historic upheaval in Algeria and Sudan is unlikely to trigger a movement.

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Last week, protesters in Sudan forced the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, one of the world’s longest-reigning dictators. Weeks before that, sustained unrest in Algeria prompted...

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