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PoliticsMarketsSecurityU.S. and CanadaEuropeMiddle EastAsia

The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

Iran Simmers

After the deadliest unrest in 40 years, internet activity suggests political and economic grievances persist.

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Two weeks ago, a sudden increase in gasoline prices set off a wave of anti-government unrest across Iran. The regime responded with a deadly crackdown. It shut off the country’s in...

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PoliticsSecurityAsia

In Hong Kong, A Vote for Democracy

District elections marked a significant victory for the protesters, and there is little sign Beijing will respond with a heavy hand.

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Over the weekend, voters in Hong Kong turned out in record numbers to deliver landslide victories to pro-democracy candidates in district council elections. The results were a powe...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaAsia

Trump Squeezes South Korea

But demands that Seoul pay more for the U.S. military presence seem to be piquing the Koreans

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The Trump Administration has ratcheted up its demands on South Korea to share the cost of basing 28,500 U.S. servicemembers on the Korean Peninsula. Washington expects Seoul to inc...

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PoliticsEurope

Merkel's EU Banking End Game

As a leadership transition looms in Germany, Madam Chancellor may go all-in on EU banking reform.

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After 14 years leading Germany, Angela Merkel will not seek another term as chancellor. Before she hands over the reins in 2021, it appears she might use some of her remaining poli...

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SecurityMiddle East

From Baghdad to Beirut

Both countries are unraveling, but internet attention to only Lebanon has remained high

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Unrest continues to roil Iraq and Lebanon. In both countries, the proximate causes are similar and familiar: people are fed up with corruption, poor economic conditions, and politi...

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SecurityLatin America

Chile's Protests Go Beyond the Economy

Unrest may continue as attention to government, security apparatus, and the mining sector surges.

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On Friday, more than 1 million people in Santiago, Chile, took to the streets. The demonstration was peaceful but capped more than a week of violent unrest over living costs and in...

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PoliticsEurope

How Parliament Might Tweak Brexit

A customs union amendment could gain momentum, and failure might be an option

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On Saturday, MPs voted to not immediately approve a new Brexit deal struck by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union until parliament had fully scrutinized the deal an...

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SecurityEuropeMiddle East

Turkey the Pariah

Ankara's Syria offensive is prompting scrutiny of Turkey's place in the world -- especially from Europe.

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Last week, President Trump abruptly ordered a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria. Within 24 hours, Turkish forces crossed the border, attacking the Syrian Kurdi...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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PoliticsU.S. and Canada

Impeachment Is Not the Only Issue

Voters are thinking about health care and the economy.

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Last week, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry after a whistleblower complaint alleging presidential abuse of power came to light. The complaint ...

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