Macron France Labor Reform

Planned Demonstrations Against French Labor Reform Unlikely To Leave Mark

Back in June, France's powerful CGT union announced that on September 12 it would lead a strike and protest against the Macron government's labor law reform agenda. But with just two days until the action, Predata signals that anticipate anti-labor reform demonstrations and civil unrest in general have remained at low levels. This suggests that though marches will take place in Paris and other major French cities -- and there is always the possibility of confrontation between agitators and polic... Continue Reading

france civil
Africa Elections Kenya Security

Kenya Decides

In Tuesday's general election, Kenyans will cast their votes for president, parliamentarians, and thousands of local representatives. The presidential race pits incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's first president, against former prime minister and perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta, one of Kenya's wealthiest men, has pushed forward high-profile development and infrastructure projects in his four years in office. But many Kenyans are dissatisfied with high unemployment,... Continue Reading

Digital Campaign kenya

Political Risk Moves Markets in Different Ways

You would think a disruptive mass protest would negatively affect a country’s market and asset prices. But recent political unrest around the globe suggests this isn’t necessarily true.  Markets are quickly shrugging off political risk associated with both peaceful and violent unrest around the world, underscoring how hard it is for global macro strategists to know when civil disruptions will rattle investor confidence.    Predata tracks digital activity and engageme... Continue Reading

protest-markets-wide
Emmanuel Macron France Labor Reform Loi Travail

French Labor Reform Opponents May Skip Summer Vacation

Is there anything standing in Emmanuel Macron's way? Following a convincing result over Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, and his party's historic performance in legislative elections that gave his government the largest majority in the history of the Fifth Republic, there remain few procedural obstacles to the young centrist's plans to reform the country. While there is a vocal – albeit small – leftist opposition in parliament, the loudest voice against any possibl... Continue Reading

Labor Law Unrest Risk
manchester bombing terrorism

Terrorism's New Normal

FOLLOWING the Westminster attack, we examined the evolving reaction across the continent to increasingly (and hauntingly) frequent terrorist incidents in Europe. Using the same methodology, we find that while the reaction to Monday's bombing in Manchester was muted across Western Europe, the difference in reaction between the UK and its neighbors was the largest we've seen yet following a major terror attack. Unsurprisingly, the terrorism subsector signal for the UK showed the largest jump in ac... Continue Reading

terror chart