South Africa Zuma

South Africa: President Zuma on the Back Foot (Again), but Replacement Remains Uncertain

Having survived the meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on May 26-28 where his removal was discussed, President Zuma probably hoped for a respite. The respite, however, turned out to be very brief as questions about his competency and probity forcibly resurfaced in early June.... Continue Reading

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UK politics Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May UK election

Are the Tories About to Blow It?

THE POLLS are tightening, the pound is taking a beating, and one constituency-by-constituency YouGov survey even suggests the Tories, long slated for a landslide victory in next Thursday's election, could be in line to lose as many as 20 seats, potentially leaving them unable to form government on their own. Is the great upset on? If Predata's signals are to be believed, probably not. Like a shaggy dog story, the election has taken interesting and unexpected detours; like a shaggy dog story, it'... Continue Reading

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Brexit UK election UK Labour UK Conservatives Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

The Tories Are Wobbling their Way to Victory

"LOW KEY" campaigning resumes today following the two-day pause observed by all parties in the wake of the Manchester bombing. The attack will affect the rhythm and tone of the campaign, but to what extent and in whose favor is difficult to gauge. The murder of Jo Cox in the final days of last year's Brexit campaign did not trigger a meaningful swing in momentum back to the Remain campaign; nor did the terrorist attack on the Champs Elysées in the home stretch of the French presidential campaign... Continue Reading

corbyn 5/25/17
mexican politics Andrés Manuel López Obrador AMLO mexico state Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto 2018 mexican presidential election

Mexico's Trump Moment Has Arrived

HELPED BY THE TRUMP administration's troubled first months and evaporating hopes of a big jolt of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., the Mexican peso has gained over 15% year-to-date. But the darling of the fund managers may be in for a sudden reverse: Predata's directional FX signals suggest there's a rising likelihood of a big, unexpected, single-day rise in USD/MXN over the next month (see chart above). The forward curve for USD/MXN implies a smooth appreciation of the pair for at least the next 1-... Continue Reading

USDMXN 5/25/17