Referendum Spain Catalonia

Showdown in Catalonia

With legal backing from Spain’s constitutional court, Prime Minister Rajoy has moved aggressively to prevent Catalan’s independence referendum scheduled for October 1. The Spanish government has threatened to prosecute Catalan mayors if they organize a referendum vote, authorized the seizure of election materials and tightened control over Catalan government finances. But the Catalan governor and other local officials who support the referendum have given no indication of backing down and mobili... Continue Reading

cata
Merkel German Election

Germany Decides 2017: In Digital Campaign, Schulz Gains, Far Right Falls

According to the polls, Angela Merkel's CDU party is almost sure to triumph over Martin Schulz's SPD in Germany's federal elections on September 24. Yet, the SPD has been steadily gaining in Predata's digital campaign scores. This rise could mean one of two things: either the SPD's support is greater than the polls show, or Schulz and his party simply have a more dynamic and engaging social media campaign than the CDU. (Schulz is very active on Twitter; Merkel doesn't have an account). The latte... Continue Reading

cdu
German Election Russia Russian Meddling Germany

Will Russian Meddling Affect the Outcome of the German Election?

A month before German federal elections scheduled for September 24, Predata noted that German interest in the election, as measured by engagement with election-related social and collaborative media sources, had been relatively muted throughout the summer. Not so in Russia. Heightened interest in the Russian-language versions of the same German election-related sources indicates that the Russian government, media and society have been closely following Europe's next big election for the past sev... Continue Reading

Putin Merkel
Elections Russia Europe

Leçons du Passé: Understanding Russian Interference in the French Election

It would have been difficult to fault France watchers in the Kremlin for overconfidence in January 2017. François Fillon, the leading candidate in the polls at the time, was a long-time contact of Vladimir Putin. Polling second was the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, whose National Front party ran on a platform of economic nationalism, repatriating power from Brussels, rapprochement with Moscow on Ukraine and Syria and rejecting immigration –all wish list items for Moscow. Trailing far behin... Continue Reading

russian interest
germany elections

Will Germany Wake Up Before the Federal Election?

In just under month Germany, Europe's most powerful country, will hold federal elections, though it appears it will do so without the same level of fanfare and media scrutiny as its neighbors who held elections earlier this year. Opinion polls have incumbent Angela Merkel's CDU firmly ahead of challenger Martin Schulz's SPD, and the main intrigue seems to be which minor party, the liberal FDP or the Greens, will join in the governing coalition. Commentators on both sides of the Atlantic have de... Continue Reading

Russia New Zealand Election

The Global Macro Scoreboard: Under Jacinda, Labour Kiwis Can Fly

Under Jacinda, Labour Kiwis Can FlyInterest in New Zealand's general election, scheduled for September 23, topped the Scoreboard this week. The lead story continues to be Labour's comeback since Jacinda Ardern became party leader on July 31. The charismatic 37-year-old MP has electrified what was a predictable race expected to keep the National Party in government. Since Ardern took over, Labour has sustained a commanding lead over National in our digital campaign scores, suggesting the Jacinda ... Continue Reading

scoreboad d
New Zealand

New Zealand Election: Will Labour Ride Jacindamania to Victory?

Two weeks ago, New Zealand's general election was on track to be anything but exciting. The National Party, led now by Prime Minister Bill English, has shepherded the country through eight years of steady, uneventful post-crisis growth. And two weeks ago it appeared certain Kiwis would hand stodgy-but-safe National another mandate. The party was polling a full 20 points ahead of the opposition Labour Party.Then on July 31, Labour leader Andrew Little announced he was resigning and leaving the pa... Continue Reading

170802142919-01-jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-exlarge-169.jpg
Africa Elections Kenya Security

Kenya Decides

In Tuesday's general election, Kenyans will cast their votes for president, parliamentarians, and thousands of local representatives. The presidential race pits incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's first president, against former prime minister and perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta, one of Kenya's wealthiest men, has pushed forward high-profile development and infrastructure projects in his four years in office. But many Kenyans are dissatisfied with high unemployment,... Continue Reading

Digital Campaign kenya
South Africa Zuma

South Africa: President Zuma on the Back Foot (Again), but Replacement Remains Uncertain

Having survived the meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on May 26-28 where his removal was discussed, President Zuma probably hoped for a respite. The respite, however, turned out to be very brief as questions about his competency and probity forcibly resurfaced in early June.... Continue Reading

zuma_successors
UK politics Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May UK election

Are the Tories About to Blow It?

THE POLLS are tightening, the pound is taking a beating, and one constituency-by-constituency YouGov survey even suggests the Tories, long slated for a landslide victory in next Thursday's election, could be in line to lose as many as 20 seats, potentially leaving them unable to form government on their own. Is the great upset on? If Predata's signals are to be believed, probably not. Like a shaggy dog story, the election has taken interesting and unexpected detours; like a shaggy dog story, it'... Continue Reading

corbs crowd