Emmanuel Macron France Labor Reform Loi Travail

French Labor Reform Opponents May Skip Summer Vacation

Is there anything standing in Emmanuel Macron's way? Following a convincing result over Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, and his party's historic performance in legislative elections that gave his government the largest majority in the history of the Fifth Republic, there remain few procedural obstacles to the young centrist's plans to reform the country. While there is a vocal – albeit small – leftist opposition in parliament, the loudest voice against any possibl... Continue Reading

Labor Law Unrest Risk
UK politics Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May UK election

Are the Tories About to Blow It?

THE POLLS are tightening, the pound is taking a beating, and one constituency-by-constituency YouGov survey even suggests the Tories, long slated for a landslide victory in next Thursday's election, could be in line to lose as many as 20 seats, potentially leaving them unable to form government on their own. Is the great upset on? If Predata's signals are to be believed, probably not. Like a shaggy dog story, the election has taken interesting and unexpected detours; like a shaggy dog story, it'... Continue Reading

corbs crowd
manchester bombing terrorism

Terrorism's New Normal

FOLLOWING the Westminster attack, we examined the evolving reaction across the continent to increasingly (and hauntingly) frequent terrorist incidents in Europe. Using the same methodology, we find that while the reaction to Monday's bombing in Manchester was muted across Western Europe, the difference in reaction between the UK and its neighbors was the largest we've seen yet following a major terror attack. Unsurprisingly, the terrorism subsector signal for the UK showed the largest jump in ac... Continue Reading

terror chart
Brexit UK election UK Labour UK Conservatives Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

The Tories Are Wobbling their Way to Victory

"LOW KEY" campaigning resumes today following the two-day pause observed by all parties in the wake of the Manchester bombing. The attack will affect the rhythm and tone of the campaign, but to what extent and in whose favor is difficult to gauge. The murder of Jo Cox in the final days of last year's Brexit campaign did not trigger a meaningful swing in momentum back to the Remain campaign; nor did the terrorist attack on the Champs Elysées in the home stretch of the French presidential campaign... Continue Reading

corbyn 5/25/17
Eurozone Emmanuel Macron European Union EU banking union

The EU Banking Union Renaissance?

EMMANUEL MACRON’S VICTORY in the French presidential election has given the European project an injection of sorely needed optimism. With the eurosceptical populists temporarily vanquished, fears of an EU breakup have tempered and cautious enthusiasm for greater economic integration has risen. The new French president is leading the charge toward greater integration. He's already called for a common Eurozone budget, parliament and finance minister, and he and his phalanx of German-speaking minis... Continue Reading