South Africa Zuma

South Africa: President Zuma on the Back Foot (Again), but Replacement Remains Uncertain

Having survived the meeting of the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on May 26-28 where his removal was discussed, President Zuma probably hoped for a respite. The respite, however, turned out to be very brief as questions about his competency and probity forcibly resurfaced in early June.... Continue Reading

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China Debt Australia Malcolm Turnbull

Australia, The Smashed Avocado Economy

DAVID BYRNE once quipped that the national dish of Australia is toast. For the past year, politicians and pundits throughout the great southern land have done that description justice by engaging in an earnest and at times quite vicious public policy debate about the effect of avocado toast on young Australians' savings habits. Avocado toast is, of course — along with the flat white — Australia's great contribution to 21st century urban culture. Amid a property market bubble that's given Sydney ... Continue Reading

avocado toast
Brexit UK election UK Labour UK Conservatives Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

The Tories Are Wobbling their Way to Victory

"LOW KEY" campaigning resumes today following the two-day pause observed by all parties in the wake of the Manchester bombing. The attack will affect the rhythm and tone of the campaign, but to what extent and in whose favor is difficult to gauge. The murder of Jo Cox in the final days of last year's Brexit campaign did not trigger a meaningful swing in momentum back to the Remain campaign; nor did the terrorist attack on the Champs Elysées in the home stretch of the French presidential campaign... Continue Reading

corbyn 5/25/17
mexican politics Andrés Manuel López Obrador AMLO mexico state Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto 2018 mexican presidential election

Mexico's Trump Moment Has Arrived

HELPED BY THE TRUMP administration's troubled first months and evaporating hopes of a big jolt of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., the Mexican peso has gained over 15% year-to-date. But the darling of the fund managers may be in for a sudden reverse: Predata's directional FX signals suggest there's a rising likelihood of a big, unexpected, single-day rise in USD/MXN over the next month (see chart above). The forward curve for USD/MXN implies a smooth appreciation of the pair for at least the next 1-... Continue Reading

USDMXN 5/25/17