Brazil Global Macro Germany Venezuela

The Global Macro Scoreboard: Venezuela El Paria

Venezuela took the highest spot on the Scoreboard this week, as fresh U.S. sanctions have brought the country's political and social crisis back to the forefront of global markets. Washington's move makes Venezuelan sovereigns and PDVSA corporate bonds personae non gratae in U.S. debt markets. Fitch already dropped Venezuela's debt rating from CC to CCC in response. The sanctions further isolate President Nicolas Maduro, who has already been all but cut out of Latin American diplomatic circles.... Continue Reading

macro s

Despite Temer Corruption Indictment, Government Calm and Carrying On

A recent lack of notable activity in Predata Government and Economy signals suggests the president and his unpopular economic reform agenda may weather blockbuster corruption charges. On May 17, the leak of a recording of President Temer discussing bribes with a meatpacking tycoon caused Predata Economy and Government volatility signals to surge, reflecting increased attention to the scandal and heightened expectation that the revelation could sink Brazil's embattled president and his economic r... Continue Reading

Brazil Michel Temer

Who's Next In Line for Impeachment Once Temer Goes?

DEVELOPMENTS since we wrote about the possible impeachments of Michel Temer and Donald Trump last week have confirmed that of the two embattled presidents, it's Temer who's at far greater risk of being removed from office. If the distraction of Trump's first overseas trip served to take some of the heat off his ailing administration, despite fresh revelations in the investigation of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign, Temer battled on last week in the face of protests and reports hi... Continue Reading

temer successors 5/28/17
mexican politics Andrés Manuel López Obrador AMLO mexico state Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto 2018 mexican presidential election

Mexico's Trump Moment Has Arrived

HELPED BY THE TRUMP administration's troubled first months and evaporating hopes of a big jolt of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., the Mexican peso has gained over 15% year-to-date. But the darling of the fund managers may be in for a sudden reverse: Predata's directional FX signals suggest there's a rising likelihood of a big, unexpected, single-day rise in USD/MXN over the next month (see chart above). The forward curve for USD/MXN implies a smooth appreciation of the pair for at least the next 1-... Continue Reading

USDMXN 5/25/17
Brazil Donald Trump Politics Michel Temer U.S.

Trump and Temer, the Weak Flesh Presidents

FROM THE MOMENT he took office, there have been calls for him to leave — either by resignation, impeachment, or some form of divine vaporization. This statement could apply as much to Michel Temer, who has presided over a near-continuous state of political chaos since taking over from Dilma Rousseff midway through last year, as Donald Trump, who was sworn in amid the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. Over the last week, however, both presidencies have plumbed new depths. Temer's premie... Continue Reading

testtest