France's Non-subjuguated Autumn of Discontent to Begin Tomorrow

A Predata signal trained to anticipate demonstrations and labor strikes in opposition to labor reform efforts in France has spiked sharply, suggesting tomorrow's scheduled protest, lead by Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise (The Non-subjugated France), is set to be as tumultuous as its organizers hope. Expect protracted, violent confrontations between a dense "black bloc" and security forces, damage to property along the demonstration route, and clashes with police continuing after the sch... Continue Reading

df
Macron France Labor Reform

Planned Demonstrations Against French Labor Reform Unlikely To Leave Mark

Back in June, France's powerful CGT union announced that on September 12 it would lead a strike and protest against the Macron government's labor law reform agenda. But with just two days until the action, Predata signals that anticipate anti-labor reform demonstrations and civil unrest in general have remained at low levels. This suggests that though marches will take place in Paris and other major French cities -- and there is always the possibility of confrontation between agitators and polic... Continue Reading

france civil
Brazil Global Macro Germany Venezuela

The Global Macro Scoreboard: Venezuela El Paria

Venezuela took the highest spot on the Scoreboard this week, as fresh U.S. sanctions have brought the country's political and social crisis back to the forefront of global markets. Washington's move makes Venezuelan sovereigns and PDVSA corporate bonds personae non gratae in U.S. debt markets. Fitch already dropped Venezuela's debt rating from CC to CCC in response. The sanctions further isolate President Nicolas Maduro, who has already been all but cut out of Latin American diplomatic circles.... Continue Reading

macro s
Xi Jinping China

Xi's China: What Dreams May Come

After becoming Communist Party chief and leader of the People’s Republic in 2012, Xi Jinping began popularizing the slogan the “Chinese Dream” ( 中国梦). The Dream is the great rejuvenation of China, achieved materially through two centenaries: to become a “moderately well-off society” by 2021, the 100-year anniversary of the Communist Party, and to become a fully-developed nation by 2049, 100 years after the founding of the People’s Republic. The Chinese Dream has become an ideological underpinnin... Continue Reading

communist congress
Policy Global Macro

The Scoreboard: U.S. Debt-Ceiling Anxiety Returns

To build the Global Macro Scoreboard, we identified 34 issues driving global markets (see the master list at the bottom). We then built a signal for each based on digital traffic (in every available language) relevant to that issue. The Scoreboard shows which signals correlated most strongly to a master signal covering all of the issues. (The strength of that correlation is represented as a percentage on the vertical axis). In other words, the Scoreboard displays the 16 issues that this week gar... Continue Reading

scoreboard

Chaebol Reform Tops Public Interest in Economic Plan

On Tuesday, newly-elected President Moon Jae-in released a five-year economic plan. It promised a "complete paradigm shift" that includes expanding the social safety net, increasing economic opportunity, and combating unfair business practices. That last point means reforming the chaebol, South Korea's family-run, politically-wired conglomerates. They include Korea's most lucrative brands: Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and Lotte. Chaebol reform was a central pledge of Moon's campaign. His predecessor, P... Continue Reading

Chaebol Flag
Hassan Rouhani Iran Deep State

Can Iran's "Deep State" Make a Comeback?

DESPITE CLAIMS of fraud by losing conservative candidate Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s Guardian Council on May 30 confirmed President Rouhani’s re-election. Given that Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei holds substantial power over many of the government’s most powerful institutions, the principal analytic question now is how much can Rouhani achieve in the face of “resistance” by hardline elements supported by the Supreme Leader. The current expectation among most Iran observers is that Rouhani faces major c... Continue Reading

iran deep state 6/4/17
Brexit UK election UK Labour UK Conservatives Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

The Tories Are Wobbling their Way to Victory

"LOW KEY" campaigning resumes today following the two-day pause observed by all parties in the wake of the Manchester bombing. The attack will affect the rhythm and tone of the campaign, but to what extent and in whose favor is difficult to gauge. The murder of Jo Cox in the final days of last year's Brexit campaign did not trigger a meaningful swing in momentum back to the Remain campaign; nor did the terrorist attack on the Champs Elysées in the home stretch of the French presidential campaign... Continue Reading

corbyn 5/25/17
Eurozone Emmanuel Macron European Union EU banking union

The EU Banking Union Renaissance?

EMMANUEL MACRON’S VICTORY in the French presidential election has given the European project an injection of sorely needed optimism. With the eurosceptical populists temporarily vanquished, fears of an EU breakup have tempered and cautious enthusiasm for greater economic integration has risen. The new French president is leading the charge toward greater integration. He's already called for a common Eurozone budget, parliament and finance minister, and he and his phalanx of German-speaking minis... Continue Reading