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PoliticsMarketsSecurityU.S. and CanadaEuropeMiddle EastAsia

The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsEurope

Merkel's EU Banking End Game

As a leadership transition looms in Germany, Madam Chancellor may go all-in on EU banking reform.

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After 14 years leading Germany, Angela Merkel will not seek another term as chancellor. Before she hands over the reins in 2021, it appears she might use some of her remaining poli...

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PoliticsEurope

How Parliament Might Tweak Brexit

A customs union amendment could gain momentum, and failure might be an option

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On Saturday, MPs voted to not immediately approve a new Brexit deal struck by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union until parliament had fully scrutinized the deal an...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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PoliticsU.S. and Canada

Impeachment Is Not the Only Issue

Voters are thinking about health care and the economy.

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Last week, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry after a whistleblower complaint alleging presidential abuse of power came to light. The complaint ...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

The World Is Watching

As global leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, the Middle East, North Korea, and climate change are dominating the internet.

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This week in New York City, world leaders have gathered for the UN General Assembly. It is a tense time for the planet. An attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facility has stoked ...

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PoliticsLatin America

Brazil is Burning

Amid international opprobrium and economic uncertainty, an anti-corruption probe is under fire.

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Brazil’s government has come under harsh international scrutiny in the past few weeks for failing to prevent or manage severe fires in the Amazon. The economy is also under pressur...

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PoliticsEurope

Brexit and the English Constitution

Political chaos is driving a spike in online interest in the foundations of British democracy.

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Amid election uncertainty, constitutional chaos reigns in the United Kingdom. Yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to call an election for October 14 should MPs attem...

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PoliticsMarketsAsiaU.S. and Canada

The Trade War Drives Downturn Fear

Online attention to past protectionism, capital flight havens points to growing concern.

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Last weekend was a roller coaster in the US-China trade war. On Friday, after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on US exports, President Trump issued a tweet storm announcing e...

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PoliticsEurope

Will Boris Johnson Really Deliver a Hard Brexit?

Markets are spooked, but a no-deal withdrawal might not be the likeliest option.

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Last week, Boris Johnson became UK prime minister. He appointed a cabinet full of hardline Brexiteers and asserted that Brexit would happen by October -- with a withdrawal deal or ...

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PoliticsMarketsLatin America

Brazil and Mexico Diverge

New presidents are steering Latin America's largest economies in different directions.

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Brazil and Mexico account for two-thirds of Latin America’s GDP. Over the past few years, recession and a crippling corruption probe battered Brazil’s economy. Mexico has maintaine...

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