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PoliticsEurope

Global Macro Scoreboard: EU Council, French Labor Reform

The EU Council delivers a firm message on Brexit, and opposition to Macron's labor law reforms founders.

iondfs

Fin de Chemin for French Labor Reform OpponentsAs Emmanuel Macron's effort to reform France's labor law creeps back to the top of the Scoreboard, it seems increasingly likely that ...

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PoliticsAsia

With Abe's Big Win, Constitutional Reform In Sight

Digital interest in reforming Japan's pacifist constitution steadily climbed leading into Sunday's snap election.

ioj

With votes still being counted in Japan's snap election, exit polls indicate Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic party was on track to secure a commanding two-thirds majority in parlia...

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MarketsPoliticsEurope

Weekly Asset Heatmap: Sweden

Our signals suggest concerns over a slowing housing market could trigger big moves in the krona and Swedish 10-yr yields.

heatmap-sweden

Our Riksbank signals suggest big moves in the krona and Swedish 10-yr yields may occur in the next 30 days....

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MarketsPoliticsU.S. and CanadaLatin America

Weekly Asset Heatmap: North America

As NAFTA talks resume this week, our predictive signals indicate big moves may be forthcoming in North American currencies -- particularly, a rising risk the peso could soon depreciate. Coupled with still-elevated concern over protectionism in Canada and Mexico, the signals suggest observers are bearish on the prospects for renegotiation.

adceacd

A rise in our Federal Reserve, Banxico, and BoC signals suggest big moves in North American currencies within the next month....

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PoliticsSecurityAsiaEurope

Global Macro Scoreboard: Will Brexit Force a May-xit?

After a rocky Tory party congress, the Brexit hardliners continue to dominate the online conversation and flummox Theresa May.

cadecads

This week's Conservative Party conference laid bare the Brexit-related fault lines ripping apart the Tories. Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor Philip Hammond built on overt...

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MarketsPoliticsEurope

After Week of Turmoil, Can Catalonia Land on Its Feet?

Online conversation activity suggests the crisis may be abating.

dafs

CATALONIA | Images coming out of Catalonia since last Sunday's independence referendum have shocked the world: Spanish police beating Catalans and seizing ballot boxes; tens of tho...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

The Catalan Crisis: The Vote Is Just the Beginning

Predata signals show unrest, violence set to continue.

uyug

CATALONIA | Undeterred by arrests, ballot seizures, and a court ruling that the vote would be illegal, Catalonia held an independence referendum today. The Spanish government crack...

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MarketsPoliticsEurope

Catalan Independence Showdown Bodes Ill for Spanish Markets

Equities and fixed income show historical sensitivity to independence movement volatility.

backtest

Global market attention to Catalonia's independence referendum, scheduled for 1 October, has picked up as the Spanish government ramps up its efforts to thwart the vote. Since Janu...

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PoliticsEurope

Global Macro Scoreboard: Strong AfD Showing Stirs Populism, Migration Concerns

In German elections today, Merkel secured another four-year mandate, but the nationalist right exceeded expectations.

scoreboard

Today, as expected, German voters handed Angela Merkel another four-year term. Less expected was the strong performance of the populist, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) par...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

France's Non-subjuguated Autumn of Discontent to Begin Tomorrow

Expect tomorrow's anti-labor reform protests to rattle markets

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A Predata signal trained to anticipate demonstrations and labor strikes in opposition to labor reform efforts in France has spiked sharply, suggesting tomorrow's scheduled protest,...

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Insights on political affairs and their impact on global markets