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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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SecurityMiddle East

Are Iranian Proxies Mobilizing?

Digital realm erupts over possibility of regional confrontation.

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For a month, the United States has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran. At the end of April it ended waivers to sanctions for nations that imported Iranian oil. After Tehran announce...

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SecurityMiddle East

On the Ropes, ISIS Leader Surfaces

A rare video of Baghdadi emerged at a low point for the terror group, but online interest in ISIS' preferred explosive is rising.

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On April 29, ISIS released a video featuring the group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It was the first video of the self-styled Caliph of the Islamic State since June 2014, and it ...

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SecurityAsia

Surmounting the Impasse

Signals show momentum for diplomatic progress may be building in Korea

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Since the late February Hanoi summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim ended in impasse, negotiations on the Korean peninsula have reportedly been stalled. Two Predata signa...

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SecurityAfricaMiddle East

Arab Spring 2.0?

Historic upheaval in Algeria and Sudan is unlikely to trigger a movement.

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Last week, protesters in Sudan forced the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, one of the world’s longest-reigning dictators. Weeks before that, sustained unrest in Algeria prompted...

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PoliticsSecurityU.S. and CanadaAsia

Market Intelligence In Depth: US and China up Geopolitical Pressure, Inch Towards Deal

Talks progress despite geopolitical posturing in Europe and the Pacific

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This is a highlight from one of the daily global markets briefings Predata sends to financial markets clients each morning. To learn more about becoming a Predata client, click her...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaEuropeAsia

The Limits of Hatred

The White nationalist gunman who killed 50 in Christchurch triggered worldwide interest in far-right movements and their ideological underpinnings -- but not significantly.

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The attack on two New Zealand mosques by a White supremacist gunman that left 50 dead sparked an uptick in online interest in far-right movements worldwide. The shooter, a 28-year-...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

In Iran, a Tactical Resignation

The foreign minister's move appears to have strengthened President Rouhani and his allies versus the hardliners.

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Last week, long-serving Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suddenly announced his resignation via Instagram. A chief proponent of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ...

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Security

Kashmir Explodes

A deadly suicide bombing in the world's most militarized region may trigger a perilous rise in tensions between nuclear-armed rivals.

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Last Thursday, in the contested Indian state of Kashmir, a Pakistani suicide bomber with the Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group rammed an explosives-rigged car into a convoy of Indian...

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SecurityAsia

Nukes on the Table

As second summit approaches, denuclearization is in the spotlight.

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At the end of last week, US officials were in Pyongyang and Seoul for discussions in the lead-up to a second summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un planned for Feb...

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SecurityMiddle East

Are Israel and Iran Slouching Toward War?

Online activity points to rising concern about a parallel conflict in Syria with regional implications.

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Last week, the Israeli military continued its campaign against Iranian forces in Syria, as it reportedly conducted strikes against Iranian targets in Damascus. Some analysts warn t...

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