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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

Iran Simmers

After the deadliest unrest in 40 years, internet activity suggests political and economic grievances persist.

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Two weeks ago, a sudden increase in gasoline prices set off a wave of anti-government unrest across Iran. The regime responded with a deadly crackdown. It shut off the country’s in...

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PoliticsSecurityAsia

In Hong Kong, A Vote for Democracy

District elections marked a significant victory for the protesters, and there is little sign Beijing will respond with a heavy hand.

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Over the weekend, voters in Hong Kong turned out in record numbers to deliver landslide victories to pro-democracy candidates in district council elections. The results were a powe...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaAsia

Trump Squeezes South Korea

But demands that Seoul pay more for the U.S. military presence seem to be piquing the Koreans

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The Trump Administration has ratcheted up its demands on South Korea to share the cost of basing 28,500 U.S. servicemembers on the Korean Peninsula. Washington expects Seoul to inc...

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SecurityMiddle East

From Baghdad to Beirut

Both countries are unraveling, but internet attention to only Lebanon has remained high

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Unrest continues to roil Iraq and Lebanon. In both countries, the proximate causes are similar and familiar: people are fed up with corruption, poor economic conditions, and politi...

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SecurityLatin America

Chile's Protests Go Beyond the Economy

Unrest may continue as attention to government, security apparatus, and the mining sector surges.

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On Friday, more than 1 million people in Santiago, Chile, took to the streets. The demonstration was peaceful but capped more than a week of violent unrest over living costs and in...

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SecurityEuropeMiddle East

Turkey the Pariah

Ankara's Syria offensive is prompting scrutiny of Turkey's place in the world -- especially from Europe.

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Last week, President Trump abruptly ordered a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria. Within 24 hours, Turkish forces crossed the border, attacking the Syrian Kurdi...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

The World Is Watching

As global leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, the Middle East, North Korea, and climate change are dominating the internet.

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This week in New York City, world leaders have gathered for the UN General Assembly. It is a tense time for the planet. An attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facility has stoked ...

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SecurityMiddle East

Does This Mean War?

The drone attack on Saudi oil facilities stoked fears about oil production, but not immediately about military conflict.

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On Saturday, September 14, drones claimed by Houthi rebels from Yemen attacked major oil production facilities at Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia. The damage forced disruptions that halved ...

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SecurityAsia

A Crackdown in Hong Kong?

As protests continue, concerns about security and economic factors are driving online attention

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Over the weekend, anti-government protesters in Hong Kong again took to the streets, as a reported 1.7 million demonstrators marched through Victoria Park. Predata signals show tha...

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