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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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SecurityAsia

A Crackdown in Hong Kong?

As protests continue, concerns about security and economic factors are driving online attention

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Over the weekend, anti-government protesters in Hong Kong again took to the streets, as a reported 1.7 million demonstrators marched through Victoria Park. Predata signals show tha...

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SecurityMiddle East

Afghanistan Without the US

A likely US withdrawal is resonating online -- but not in the ways Washington may want.

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After 18 years at war in Afghanistan, the United States may finally be nearing an exit. Late last week, international media reported that US and Taliban officials were close to rea...

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SecurityEurope

Will Putin's Crackdown Backfire?

The harsh response to protests in Moscow is fueling interest in the movement.

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Moscow is experiencing its largest wave of anti-government unrest in nearly a decade. Three weekends ago, demonstrators took to the streets after the electoral authority barred sev...

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SecurityAsia

China's Uighur Problem Flares, Even As Hong Kong Fades

Beijing's massive internment and surveillance of Muslims comes under scrutiny.

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After suffering a rebuke from demonstrators in Hong Kong last month, Beijing now faces increased scrutiny of its incarceration and reeducation of ethnic Uighurs in the autonomous r...

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SecurityAsia

Hong Kong Sparks Taiwan Volatility

Online activity related to cross-strait relations spikes amid extradition bill protests.

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Over the past week, more than a million Hong Kong residents have taken to the streets to oppose a bill that would allow the extradition of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese mainla...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaLatin America

The Mexican Tariff Reaction

Signals suggest White House tariff threat may be more serious than markets assume

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At the end of last week, President Trump announced that starting June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports unless the country alleviated the...

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SecurityMiddle East

Are Iranian Proxies Mobilizing?

Digital realm erupts over possibility of regional confrontation.

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For a month, the United States has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran. At the end of April it ended waivers to sanctions for nations that imported Iranian oil. After Tehran announce...

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SecurityMiddle East

On the Ropes, ISIS Leader Surfaces

A rare video of Baghdadi emerged at a low point for the terror group, but online interest in ISIS' preferred explosive is rising.

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On April 29, ISIS released a video featuring the group’s leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It was the first video of the self-styled Caliph of the Islamic State since June 2014, and it ...

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SecurityAsia

Surmounting the Impasse

Signals show momentum for diplomatic progress may be building in Korea

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Since the late February Hanoi summit between President Trump and Chairman Kim ended in impasse, negotiations on the Korean peninsula have reportedly been stalled. Two Predata signa...

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SecurityAfricaMiddle East

Arab Spring 2.0?

Historic upheaval in Algeria and Sudan is unlikely to trigger a movement.

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Last week, protesters in Sudan forced the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, one of the world’s longest-reigning dictators. Weeks before that, sustained unrest in Algeria prompted...

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