mexican politics Andrés Manuel López Obrador AMLO mexico state Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto 2018 mexican presidential election

Mexico's Trump Moment Has Arrived

HELPED BY THE TRUMP administration's troubled first months and evaporating hopes of a big jolt of fiscal stimulus in the U.S., the Mexican peso has gained over 15% year-to-date. But the darling of the fund managers may be in for a sudden reverse: Predata's directional FX signals suggest there's a rising likelihood of a big, unexpected, single-day rise in USD/MXN over the next month (see chart above). The forward curve for USD/MXN implies a smooth appreciation of the pair for at least the next 1-... Continue Reading

USDMXN 5/25/17
Brexit UK election UK Labour UK Conservatives Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May

The Tories Are Wobbling their Way to Victory

"LOW KEY" campaigning resumes today following the two-day pause observed by all parties in the wake of the Manchester bombing. The attack will affect the rhythm and tone of the campaign, but to what extent and in whose favor is difficult to gauge. The murder of Jo Cox in the final days of last year's Brexit campaign did not trigger a meaningful swing in momentum back to the Remain campaign; nor did the terrorist attack on the Champs Elysées in the home stretch of the French presidential campaign... Continue Reading

corbyn 5/25/17
Eurozone Emmanuel Macron European Union EU banking union

The EU Banking Union Renaissance?

EMMANUEL MACRON’S VICTORY in the French presidential election has given the European project an injection of sorely needed optimism. With the eurosceptical populists temporarily vanquished, fears of an EU breakup have tempered and cautious enthusiasm for greater economic integration has risen. The new French president is leading the charge toward greater integration. He's already called for a common Eurozone budget, parliament and finance minister, and he and his phalanx of German-speaking minis... Continue Reading

Brazil Donald Trump Politics Michel Temer U.S.

Trump and Temer, the Weak Flesh Presidents

FROM THE MOMENT he took office, there have been calls for him to leave — either by resignation, impeachment, or some form of divine vaporization. This statement could apply as much to Michel Temer, who has presided over a near-continuous state of political chaos since taking over from Dilma Rousseff midway through last year, as Donald Trump, who was sworn in amid the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. Over the last week, however, both presidencies have plumbed new depths. Temer's premie... Continue Reading

testtest