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PoliticsMarketsSecurityU.S. and CanadaEuropeMiddle EastAsia

The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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MarketsAsia

China's Economy is Slowing. Do Chinese Blame the Trade War?

Patterns of online attention suggest the trade war may not be stinging China as much as some Western media assume.

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Data released yesterday showed China’s economy grew at a rate of 6.2% in the second quarter of this year, the slowest pace in nearly 30 years. Still, that figure was in line with e...

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SecurityAsia

China's Uighur Problem Flares, Even As Hong Kong Fades

Beijing's massive internment and surveillance of Muslims comes under scrutiny.

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After suffering a rebuke from demonstrators in Hong Kong last month, Beijing now faces increased scrutiny of its incarceration and reeducation of ethnic Uighurs in the autonomous r...

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MarketsU.S. and CanadaAsia

How Long Will the Bull Market Run?

Online activity points to investor unease.

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Equity markets worldwide are surging. The US stock market is enjoying an historically long bull run, and yesterday marked 121 consecutive months of economic expansion, the longest ...

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MarketsAsia

Slowing Growth, Rising Debt May Force Xi's Hand

Heightened scrutiny of China's economic challenges underscores pressure on Beijing to defuse the trade war at the G20.

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On Friday, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G20 in Osaka, Japan, and discuss trade. Talks between Beijing and Washington broke down in May, ...

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SecurityAsia

Hong Kong Sparks Taiwan Volatility

Online activity related to cross-strait relations spikes amid extradition bill protests.

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Over the past week, more than a million Hong Kong residents have taken to the streets to oppose a bill that would allow the extradition of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese mainla...

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PoliticsLatin America

Guatemala Votes

With anti-corruption frontrunner disqualified, voters look for options.

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As rising numbers of Central American migrants arrive at the US border seeking asylum, the discussion in the United States has focused on Mexico. Relatively little attention has be...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaLatin America

The Mexican Tariff Reaction

Signals suggest White House tariff threat may be more serious than markets assume

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At the end of last week, President Trump announced that starting June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports unless the country alleviated the...

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PoliticsAsia

The Trade War Enters a New Phase

Digital indicators suggest observers are bracing for a protracted, uncertain conflict.

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This month, the US-China trade war escalated. After talks broke down, Washington announced it would impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods and it effectively banned Huawei, the...

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PoliticsEurope

For Britain, It's the Economy Stupid

European Parliamentary elections and Brexit politics dominate headlines, but concerns about the UK economy are rising.

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This Thursday, the UK will vote in European elections, a poll that for British voters was never supposed to happen but for Brexit’s delay until October. The circumstances of the el...

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SecurityMiddle East

Are Iranian Proxies Mobilizing?

Digital realm erupts over possibility of regional confrontation.

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For a month, the United States has ratcheted up the pressure on Iran. At the end of April it ended waivers to sanctions for nations that imported Iranian oil. After Tehran announce...

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