germany elections

Will Germany Wake Up Before the Federal Election?

In just under month Germany, Europe's most powerful country, will hold federal elections, though it appears it will do so without the same level of fanfare and media scrutiny as its neighbors who held elections earlier this year. Opinion polls have incumbent Angela Merkel's CDU firmly ahead of challenger Martin Schulz's SPD, and the main intrigue seems to be which minor party, the liberal FDP or the Greens, will join in the governing coalition. Commentators on both sides of the Atlantic have de... Continue Reading

Russia New Zealand Election

The Global Macro Scoreboard: Under Jacinda, Labour Kiwis Can Fly

Under Jacinda, Labour Kiwis Can FlyInterest in New Zealand's general election, scheduled for September 23, topped the Scoreboard this week. The lead story continues to be Labour's comeback since Jacinda Ardern became party leader on July 31. The charismatic 37-year-old MP has electrified what was a predictable race expected to keep the National Party in government. Since Ardern took over, Labour has sustained a commanding lead over National in our digital campaign scores, suggesting the Jacinda ... Continue Reading

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Xi Jinping China

Xi's China: What Dreams May Come

After becoming Communist Party chief and leader of the People’s Republic in 2012, Xi Jinping began popularizing the slogan the “Chinese Dream” ( 中国梦). The Dream is the great rejuvenation of China, achieved materially through two centenaries: to become a “moderately well-off society” by 2021, the 100-year anniversary of the Communist Party, and to become a fully-developed nation by 2049, 100 years after the founding of the People’s Republic. The Chinese Dream has become an ideological underpinnin... Continue Reading

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Iran Nuclear Deal Rouhani

Iran: Domestic Politics Drive Nuclear Deal Posturing

On August 15, President Rouhani threatened to withdraw from the P5+1 nuclear deal “within hours” should the United States impose further sanctions on Iran. A day before the statement, in a show of power, Ayatollah Khamenei named a slate of new, mostly conservative members to the Expediency Council, a high-level advisory body that mediates legislative disputes between Parliament and the Guardian Council. ... Continue Reading

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New Zealand

New Zealand Election: Will Labour Ride Jacindamania to Victory?

Two weeks ago, New Zealand's general election was on track to be anything but exciting. The National Party, led now by Prime Minister Bill English, has shepherded the country through eight years of steady, uneventful post-crisis growth. And two weeks ago it appeared certain Kiwis would hand stodgy-but-safe National another mandate. The party was polling a full 20 points ahead of the opposition Labour Party.Then on July 31, Labour leader Andrew Little announced he was resigning and leaving the pa... Continue Reading

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Africa Elections Kenya Security

Kenya Decides

In Tuesday's general election, Kenyans will cast their votes for president, parliamentarians, and thousands of local representatives. The presidential race pits incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta, son of the country's first president, against former prime minister and perennial opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta, one of Kenya's wealthiest men, has pushed forward high-profile development and infrastructure projects in his four years in office. But many Kenyans are dissatisfied with high unemployment,... Continue Reading

Digital Campaign kenya
Policy Global Macro

The Scoreboard: U.S. Debt-Ceiling Anxiety Returns

To build the Global Macro Scoreboard, we identified 34 issues driving global markets (see the master list at the bottom). We then built a signal for each based on digital traffic (in every available language) relevant to that issue. The Scoreboard shows which signals correlated most strongly to a master signal covering all of the issues. (The strength of that correlation is represented as a percentage on the vertical axis). In other words, the Scoreboard displays the 16 issues that this week gar... Continue Reading

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Political Risk Moves Markets in Different Ways

You would think a disruptive mass protest would negatively affect a country’s market and asset prices. But recent political unrest around the globe suggests this isn’t necessarily true.  Markets are quickly shrugging off political risk associated with both peaceful and violent unrest around the world, underscoring how hard it is for global macro strategists to know when civil disruptions will rattle investor confidence.    Predata tracks digital activity and engageme... Continue Reading

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Chaebol Reform Tops Public Interest in Economic Plan

On Tuesday, newly-elected President Moon Jae-in released a five-year economic plan. It promised a "complete paradigm shift" that includes expanding the social safety net, increasing economic opportunity, and combating unfair business practices. That last point means reforming the chaebol, South Korea's family-run, politically-wired conglomerates. They include Korea's most lucrative brands: Samsung, LG, Hyundai, and Lotte. Chaebol reform was a central pledge of Moon's campaign. His predecessor, P... Continue Reading

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Has China Lost Interest in Pyongyang's Provocations?

In two July tests, North Korea proved it has the capability to hit the continental United States with a ballistic missile. Alarm bells sounded in the West. But in China, by the measure of online conversation about North Korea and its WMD program, the tests were not perceived as particularly significant to the bilateral relationship. Historically, the Predata signal that tracks DPRK-China relations shown above has reacted emphatically to Pyongyang's provocations. That these latest, dramatic launc... Continue Reading

Low Chinese Interest in ICBM Launches