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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsEurope

May's Brexit Blindspot

Forget Hard Brexit vs. Soft Brexit. Online, supporters of the People's Vote are winning the day.

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Trends in the digital debate surrounding Brexit suggest Prime Minister Theresa May might be overlooking what could emerge as the biggest threat to her Brexit deal – and ultimately ...

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Politics

2018 U.S. Midterms Outlook: Immigration in the Spotlight

The migrant caravan and Pittsburgh shooting drove digital interest in immigration and gun control issues to climb, at the expense of healthcare and economic issues. Plus, foreign policy lingers in the national attention; the Supreme Court does not.

Immigration/Gun Control

Heading into October, candidates from both parties were set to wage the battle for both houses of Congress along familiar policy lines. Between September 1st and October 25th, onli...

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PoliticsU.S. and Canada

A Climate of Hate

Amid acts of violence, signals show convergence of digital interest in certain far-right issues.

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In the past week, expressions of violence from the far-right have sown fear and death in the United States. Predata’s signals monitor which subjects related to the far-right and al...

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MarketsSecurityMiddle East

The Khashoggi Fallout

Digital scrutiny of Saudi economy and reform agenda remains high after killing of dissident journalist.

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For nearly three weeks, the killing of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi has dominated the news cycle and produced a powerful and persistent international backlash. Predat...

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MarketsU.S. and Canada

Market Fears Linger

Online activity remains heightened after sudden stock market decline.

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A Predata research note sent October 2 warned that digital interest in the possibility of a stock market crash had steadily risen in late September and early October. The level of ...

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Politics

2018 U.S. Midterms Outlook

Trade and foreign policy signals rise on announcement of new USMCA deal

USMCA-deal

The announcement of the new trilateral trade deal between the US, Canada, and Mexico sent Predata's NAFTA signal soaring. Some voters may see USMCA as yet another front of the brew...

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MarketsAsia

In China, Signs of Financial Strain

Signals for corporate default risk, capital outflow point to credit-related stress.

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Market observers have long been worrying about the risk of a Chinese credit crunch. Now, two of Predata’s early warning signals of financial stress inside the PRC are elevated -- t...

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SecurityAfrica

South Sudan's Impossible Peace

A deal has been signed, but the risk of violence looms.

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Last month, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir concluded a peace deal with Riek Machar, his erstwhile vice president and leader of the SPLM-IO rebel group. The deal aims to end th...

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SecurityMiddle East

The Republic Set To Strike Back

Renewed sanctions threat, terrorist attack likely to produce military reaction from Tehran.

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Today, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani addresses the UN General Assembly amid an increasingly perilous atmosphere. Since withdrawing from the nuclear deal, the United States has r...

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SecurityAsia

Moon Goes North

Despite hype surrounding inter-Korean summit, signals indicate tepid expectations for a major breakthrough.

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Hopes are high for the third meeting between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang this week. Some North Korea watchers took an offici...

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