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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsSecurityAsia

In Hong Kong, A Vote for Democracy

District elections marked a significant victory for the protesters, and there is little sign Beijing will respond with a heavy hand.

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Over the weekend, voters in Hong Kong turned out in record numbers to deliver landslide victories to pro-democracy candidates in district council elections. The results were a powe...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaAsia

Trump Squeezes South Korea

But demands that Seoul pay more for the U.S. military presence seem to be piquing the Koreans

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The Trump Administration has ratcheted up its demands on South Korea to share the cost of basing 28,500 U.S. servicemembers on the Korean Peninsula. Washington expects Seoul to inc...

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PoliticsMarketsAsiaU.S. and Canada

The Trade War Drives Downturn Fear

Online attention to past protectionism, capital flight havens points to growing concern.

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Last weekend was a roller coaster in the US-China trade war. On Friday, after Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on US exports, President Trump issued a tweet storm announcing e...

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SecurityAsia

A Crackdown in Hong Kong?

As protests continue, concerns about security and economic factors are driving online attention

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Over the weekend, anti-government protesters in Hong Kong again took to the streets, as a reported 1.7 million demonstrators marched through Victoria Park. Predata signals show tha...

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MarketsAsia

China's Economy is Slowing. Do Chinese Blame the Trade War?

Patterns of online attention suggest the trade war may not be stinging China as much as some Western media assume.

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Data released yesterday showed China’s economy grew at a rate of 6.2% in the second quarter of this year, the slowest pace in nearly 30 years. Still, that figure was in line with e...

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SecurityAsia

China's Uighur Problem Flares, Even As Hong Kong Fades

Beijing's massive internment and surveillance of Muslims comes under scrutiny.

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After suffering a rebuke from demonstrators in Hong Kong last month, Beijing now faces increased scrutiny of its incarceration and reeducation of ethnic Uighurs in the autonomous r...

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MarketsU.S. and CanadaAsia

How Long Will the Bull Market Run?

Online activity points to investor unease.

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Equity markets worldwide are surging. The US stock market is enjoying an historically long bull run, and yesterday marked 121 consecutive months of economic expansion, the longest ...

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MarketsAsia

Slowing Growth, Rising Debt May Force Xi's Hand

Heightened scrutiny of China's economic challenges underscores pressure on Beijing to defuse the trade war at the G20.

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On Friday, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G20 in Osaka, Japan, and discuss trade. Talks between Beijing and Washington broke down in May, ...

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SecurityAsia

Hong Kong Sparks Taiwan Volatility

Online activity related to cross-strait relations spikes amid extradition bill protests.

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Over the past week, more than a million Hong Kong residents have taken to the streets to oppose a bill that would allow the extradition of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese mainla...

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PoliticsAsia

The Trade War Enters a New Phase

Digital indicators suggest observers are bracing for a protracted, uncertain conflict.

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This month, the US-China trade war escalated. After talks broke down, Washington announced it would impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods and it effectively banned Huawei, the...

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