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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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SecurityAsia

A Crackdown in Hong Kong?

As protests continue, concerns about security and economic factors are driving online attention

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Over the weekend, anti-government protesters in Hong Kong again took to the streets, as a reported 1.7 million demonstrators marched through Victoria Park. Predata signals show tha...

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SecurityEurope

Will Putin's Crackdown Backfire?

The harsh response to protests in Moscow is fueling interest in the movement.

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Moscow is experiencing its largest wave of anti-government unrest in nearly a decade. Three weekends ago, demonstrators took to the streets after the electoral authority barred sev...

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SecurityAsia

China's Uighur Problem Flares, Even As Hong Kong Fades

Beijing's massive internment and surveillance of Muslims comes under scrutiny.

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After suffering a rebuke from demonstrators in Hong Kong last month, Beijing now faces increased scrutiny of its incarceration and reeducation of ethnic Uighurs in the autonomous r...

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SecurityAsia

Hong Kong Sparks Taiwan Volatility

Online activity related to cross-strait relations spikes amid extradition bill protests.

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Over the past week, more than a million Hong Kong residents have taken to the streets to oppose a bill that would allow the extradition of Hong Kong residents to the Chinese mainla...

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SecurityAfricaMiddle East

Arab Spring 2.0?

Historic upheaval in Algeria and Sudan is unlikely to trigger a movement.

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Last week, protesters in Sudan forced the ouster of President Omar al-Bashir, one of the world’s longest-reigning dictators. Weeks before that, sustained unrest in Algeria prompted...

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SecurityEurope

Inauguration Number What?

Protests across the country ahead of Putin's inauguration made their mark online in spite of reduced turnout.

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This past weekend, Russian interest in opposition movements and themes matched levels observed around other major protests. Opposition firebrand Alexey Navalny called for a day of ...

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SecurityEurope

Mall Blaze Sparks Outrage Across Russia

The tragedy in Siberia is driving widespread Russian attention to government corruption.

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For the last month, the escalating diplomatic conflict over the Kremlin's alleged poisoning of former intelligence double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the UK has captiv...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Navalny Who? The Russian Opposition Broadens

Russians are paying greater attention to economic and political grievances rather than specific opposition figures.

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Last week, principal Vladimir Putin critic Alexei Navalny led nationwide protests to call for a boycott of the March 18 presidential election. For Putin, the vote is a fait accompl...

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SecurityLatin America

Venezuela's Year for Living Dangerously

Social media pattern analysis points to intensifying insecurity, civil unrest, and potential military action.

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To say Venezuela's crisis is worsening is hardly a unique observation. Recent reports of looting by hungry mobs, cratering oil production, and mass migration to Colombia all paint ...

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