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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsEurope

Merkel's EU Banking End Game

As a leadership transition looms in Germany, Madam Chancellor may go all-in on EU banking reform.

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After 14 years leading Germany, Angela Merkel will not seek another term as chancellor. Before she hands over the reins in 2021, it appears she might use some of her remaining poli...

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PoliticsEurope

How Parliament Might Tweak Brexit

A customs union amendment could gain momentum, and failure might be an option

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On Saturday, MPs voted to not immediately approve a new Brexit deal struck by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the European Union until parliament had fully scrutinized the deal an...

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SecurityEuropeMiddle East

Turkey the Pariah

Ankara's Syria offensive is prompting scrutiny of Turkey's place in the world -- especially from Europe.

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Last week, President Trump abruptly ordered a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria. Within 24 hours, Turkish forces crossed the border, attacking the Syrian Kurdi...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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PoliticsEurope

Brexit and the English Constitution

Political chaos is driving a spike in online interest in the foundations of British democracy.

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Amid election uncertainty, constitutional chaos reigns in the United Kingdom. Yesterday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson threatened to call an election for October 14 should MPs attem...

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SecurityEurope

Will Putin's Crackdown Backfire?

The harsh response to protests in Moscow is fueling interest in the movement.

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Moscow is experiencing its largest wave of anti-government unrest in nearly a decade. Three weekends ago, demonstrators took to the streets after the electoral authority barred sev...

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PoliticsEurope

Will Boris Johnson Really Deliver a Hard Brexit?

Markets are spooked, but a no-deal withdrawal might not be the likeliest option.

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Last week, Boris Johnson became UK prime minister. He appointed a cabinet full of hardline Brexiteers and asserted that Brexit would happen by October -- with a withdrawal deal or ...

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PoliticsEurope

For Britain, It's the Economy Stupid

European Parliamentary elections and Brexit politics dominate headlines, but concerns about the UK economy are rising.

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This Thursday, the UK will vote in European elections, a poll that for British voters was never supposed to happen but for Brexit’s delay until October. The circumstances of the el...

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MarketsAsiaU.S. and CanadaEurope

The Yield Curve Inverted

But that might not be reason to panic.

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There has been reason for pessimism in markets recently. Last week, the Fed issued unexpectedly dovish rates guidance, saying it would likely not hike interest rates this year. Wea...

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SecurityAsiaU.S. and CanadaEurope

The Limits of Hatred

The White nationalist gunman who killed 50 in Christchurch triggered worldwide interest in far-right movements and their ideological underpinnings -- but not significantly.

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The attack on two New Zealand mosques by a White supremacist gunman that left 50 dead sparked an uptick in online interest in far-right movements worldwide. The shooter, a 28-year-...

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