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Markets

Global Macro Scoreboard and Asset Heatmap: April 16, 2018

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U.S.-led strikes against Syrian government chemical weapons facilities drove global concern over oil markets and escalating conflict in the Middle East.

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MarketsSecurityEurope

These Sanctions Bite

Web traffic shows latest U.S. sanctions are hitting home in Russia, driving concerns about economic crisis.

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On April 6, the United States announced new sanctions against Russian oligarchs and businesses. The measures have wrought economic havoc in Russia. The ruble fell 5 percent against...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaAsia

China Trade War Fears Still Running High

As perceived risk of NAFTA withdrawal has subsided, Sino-American trade war continues to rattle online observers.

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Over the weekend, Trump Administration officials sought to play down the escalating tit-for-tat with China over trade. The latest salvo had come April 5, when the White House annou...

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SecurityAsia

Amid Trade Friction, Taiwan Tensions Are Rising

All eyes are on trade war, but the real flashpoint might be Taiwan.

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Last week, the Trump Administration threatened to impose tariffs on up to $60 billion worth of Chinese imports. The announcement, like a similar one earlier in March on steel and a...

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MarketsSecurity

Global Macro Scoreboard: March 20, 2018

The attention of global internet users was spread across several issues last week, ranging from North Korea to trade to Japanese monetary policy to the Saudi Crown Prince's U.S. visit.

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Russia's Vote of Indifference

Russian internet users show uncharacteristic disinterest amid Sunday's presidential election.

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To the surprise of no one, Russian President Vladimir Putin was elected to a fourth six-year term on Sunday. Viable opposition leaders were barred from running. Voter turnout, whic...

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SecurityLatin America

Is Temer's Military Intervention a Political Game?

Predata signals suggest Brazilians are skeptical of President Temer's extraordinary security decree.

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Brazilians are justifiably wary of the military. The Constitution of 1988 put to rest an army dictatorship with a dark record of torture, arbitrary imprisonment, and extrajudicial ...

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SecurityLatin America

Venezuela's Year for Living Dangerously

Social media pattern analysis points to intensifying insecurity, civil unrest, and potential military action.

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To say Venezuela's crisis is worsening is hardly a unique observation. Recent reports of looting by hungry mobs, cratering oil production, and mass migration to Colombia all paint ...

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SecurityAfrica

Terrorism Risk in Somalia Rising

A signal that anticipated last October's deadly Mogadishu bombings is trending upward.

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A Predata signal trained to anticipate terrorist bombings in Somalia has leapt in recent days. The prediction value is currently at 45 percent, which means our algorithms estimate ...

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SecurityAsia

Hot Signals: Pakistan

This week's geopolitical insight

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PAKISTAN | President Trump last week threw a lit match onto the fraught U.S.-Pakistan relationship with a tweet calling for a suspension of all U.S. aid to the South Asian country....

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MarketsSecurityEuropeMiddle EastAsia

Global Macro Scoreboard: North Korea, ECB, & Iran Nuclear Deal

The continued North Korean Crisis and European Central Bank topics dominated conversation over the past week, while the Iran Nuclear Deal is generating more attention.

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Though President Trump's tweet about nuclear button size turned the world's attention toward the North Korea Crisis last week, our signals revealed the possibility of increased Sou...

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