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Global Macro Scoreboard: Breaking Brexit

With the future of Brexit and EU Reform at inflection points, expectations are high for this week's European Council summit.

gms-10-15-17

At this week's European Council summit, EU leaders were supposed to give the Commission the green light to proceed to the next phase of Brexit negotiations. Instead, after the fift...

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PoliticsSecurityAsiaEurope

Global Macro Scoreboard: Will Brexit Force a May-xit?

After a rocky Tory party congress, the Brexit hardliners continue to dominate the online conversation and flummox Theresa May.

cadecads

This week's Conservative Party conference laid bare the Brexit-related fault lines ripping apart the Tories. Prime Minister Theresa May and Chancellor Philip Hammond built on overt...

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MarketsSecurityAsiaU.S. and Canada

Global Macro Scoreboard: Prelude to (Trade) War?

Tension over U.S.-China trade relations is growing, as two Trump cabinet secretaries visited Beijing last week.

dfacd

This week's Scoreboard reflected increased market attention to issues related to the U.S.-China trade relationship, with both Protectionism and U.S.-China Trade War registering maj...

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SecurityMiddle EastU.S. and Canada

Will Trump Ditch the Iran Nuclear Deal?

Supporters of the JCPOA are gaining digital momentum.

cafee

After calling the nuclear deal an “embarrassment” in his speech to the UN General Assembly last month, the president said he would announce in October whether the United States wou...

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SecurityEurope

Who's Afraid of Big, Bad Zapad?

As Russia gears up for the Zapad 2017 military exercise, some neighbors are showing greater concern than others.

zapad

Zapad 2017, a massive joint Russia-Belarus military exercise, begins Thursday. The exercise will take place in Belarus and Kaliningrad, near the borders of Poland and the Baltic st...

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SecurityMiddle East

After Hajj, Iran-Saudi Rivalry Back On

Despite a successful Hajj that some hoped could trigger a rapprochement, regional animosity appears to have resumed.

Iran-Saudi

Some have speculated the successful participation of Iranian pilgrims in this year’s Hajj could mark the start of a rapprochement between the two regional enemies. In early Septemb...

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SecurityEurope

As Zapad Looms, Lithuania Faces Russian Meddling Risk

Signal activity suggests Lithuania could face cyber intrusions or disinformation campaigns.

lithuan

With Zapad 2017, Russia's massive quadrennial military exercise, set to begin in Belarus September 14, a Predata anticipatory signal for Russian civil interference in Lithuania has...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Leçons du Passé: Understanding Russian Interference in the French Election

In the wake of substantiated claims of Russian attempts to influence elections in the United States and in France, Predata has developed a set of methodologies that can be applied to detect and monitor efforts to influence future elections.

russian interest

It would have been difficult to fault France watchers in the Kremlin for overconfidence in January 2017. François Fillon, the leading candidate in the polls at the time, was a lon...

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MarketsPoliticsSecurityAsia

Xi's China: What Dreams May Come

With the 19th Chinese Communist Party National Congress to be held sometime this autumn, Predata examines what certain economic and geopolitical components of Xi Jinping's hallmark ideology of the past five years — the “Chinese Dream” — have meant for political volatility and markets.

communist congress

After becoming Communist Party chief and leader of the People’s Republic in 2012, Xi Jinping began popularizing the slogan the “Chinese Dream” ( 中国梦). The Dream is the great rejuve...

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SecurityMiddle East

Iran: Domestic Politics Drive Nuclear Deal Posturing

President Rouhani's threat to scrap the nuclear deal was a well-timed political volley.

rouhani

On August 15, President Rouhani threatened to withdraw from the P5+1 nuclear deal “within hours” should the United States impose further sanctions on Iran. A day before the stateme...

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