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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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SecurityLatin America

Chile's Protests Go Beyond the Economy

Unrest may continue as attention to government, security apparatus, and the mining sector surges.


On Friday, more than 1 million people in Santiago, Chile, took to the streets. The demonstration was peaceful but capped more than a week of violent unrest over living costs and in...

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PoliticsLatin America

Brazil is Burning

Amid international opprobrium and economic uncertainty, an anti-corruption probe is under fire.


Brazil’s government has come under harsh international scrutiny in the past few weeks for failing to prevent or manage severe fires in the Amazon. The economy is also under pressur...

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PoliticsMarketsLatin America

Brazil and Mexico Diverge

New presidents are steering Latin America's largest economies in different directions.


Brazil and Mexico account for two-thirds of Latin America’s GDP. Over the past few years, recession and a crippling corruption probe battered Brazil’s economy. Mexico has maintaine...

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PoliticsLatin America

Guatemala Votes

With anti-corruption frontrunner disqualified, voters look for options.


As rising numbers of Central American migrants arrive at the US border seeking asylum, the discussion in the United States has focused on Mexico. Relatively little attention has be...

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SecurityU.S. and CanadaLatin America

The Mexican Tariff Reaction

Signals suggest White House tariff threat may be more serious than markets assume


At the end of last week, President Trump announced that starting June 10, the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports unless the country alleviated the...

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SecurityLatin America

Maduro the Immovable

Venezuela's dictator has endured -- but the popular pressure is again rising.


On January 10, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was inaugurated for another five-year term. The election he won last fall was boycotted by the opposition, the result rejected by...

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MarketsLatin America

Brazil Soybeans & China Trade

A lower than expected soybean yield in Brazil may not provide a boost to local prices


Bumper soybean crops in Brazil have been a boon for China for much of 2018, as last year’s record yields helped Xi Jinping maintain a tough stance in the trade war with the US whil...

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PoliticsLatin America

Car Wash Roars Back

Will Jair Bolsonaro's government take corruption seriously?


Like every candidate for higher office in Brazil, president-elect Jair Bolsonaro ran on a pledge to crack down on corruption, which voters tell pollsters is the country’s biggest p...

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MarketsLatin America

How Far Will Argentina's Tempest Blow?

A Predata index suggests it's not time to panic yet.


Foul winds have been whipping through emerging markets. After the Turkish lira plunged last month triggering falls in European markets, the collapse of the Argentine peso has unlea...

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SecurityLatin America

Caracas Starts To Crack

With revenue sources vanishing, the military may take matters into its own hands.


As Venezuela has plunged deeper into crisis, President Nicolas Maduro has managed to keep his grip on power in large part by placating key elements of Venezuela's military. General...

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