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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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SecurityLatin America

Maduro the Immovable

Venezuela's dictator has endured -- but the popular pressure is again rising.

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On January 10, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was inaugurated for another five-year term. The election he won last fall was boycotted by the opposition, the result rejected by...

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MarketsLatin America

Brazil Soybeans & China Trade

A lower than expected soybean yield in Brazil may not provide a boost to local prices

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Bumper soybean crops in Brazil have been a boon for China for much of 2018, as last year’s record yields helped Xi Jinping maintain a tough stance in the trade war with the US whil...

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PoliticsLatin America

Car Wash Roars Back

Will Jair Bolsonaro's government take corruption seriously?

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Like every candidate for higher office in Brazil, president-elect Jair Bolsonaro ran on a pledge to crack down on corruption, which voters tell pollsters is the country’s biggest p...

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MarketsLatin America

How Far Will Argentina's Tempest Blow?

A Predata index suggests it's not time to panic yet.

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Foul winds have been whipping through emerging markets. After the Turkish lira plunged last month triggering falls in European markets, the collapse of the Argentine peso has unlea...

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SecurityLatin America

Caracas Starts To Crack

With revenue sources vanishing, the military may take matters into its own hands.

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As Venezuela has plunged deeper into crisis, President Nicolas Maduro has managed to keep his grip on power in large part by placating key elements of Venezuela's military. General...

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PoliticsSecurityLatin America

When Will Venezuela Crack?

A divided opposition did capture online attention, but predictive signals favor the status quo.

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Long before Sunday’s vote, Venezuela’s presidential election was a fait accompli. Nicholas Maduro, who has become more autocratic the deeper the country falls into crisis, banned m...

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SecurityLatin America

Is Temer's Military Intervention a Political Game?

Predata signals suggest Brazilians are skeptical of President Temer's extraordinary security decree.

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Brazilians are justifiably wary of the military. The Constitution of 1988 put to rest an army dictatorship with a dark record of torture, arbitrary imprisonment, and extrajudicial ...

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PoliticsLatin America

The Unlikely Persistence of Lula and Pension Reform

Despite a corruption sentence, Brazil's leading presidential candidate says he's not done yet. And will this be the month long-anticipated pension reform passes Congress?

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Investors breathed a sigh of relief two weeks ago when an appeals court upheld a corruption conviction against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, technically barring the former president f...

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PoliticsU.S. and CanadaLatin AmericaAsia

Global Macro Scoreboard: January 28

This week, international online audiences turned their attention to trade issues, the U.S. federal budget and debt, and Brazil's political landscape after an appeals court upheld a corruption ruling against presidential frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

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SecurityLatin America

Venezuela's Year for Living Dangerously

Social media pattern analysis points to intensifying insecurity, civil unrest, and potential military action.

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To say Venezuela's crisis is worsening is hardly a unique observation. Recent reports of looting by hungry mobs, cratering oil production, and mass migration to Colombia all paint ...

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