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Global Macro Scoreboard and Asset Heatmap: August 7, 2018

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For the second straight week global interest in the US national debt surged, perhaps due to a report that in order to pay for ballooning government deficits, US Treasury borrowing in the second half of 2018 would increase 63 percent on the previous year.

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PoliticsSecurityLatin America

When Will Venezuela Crack?

A divided opposition did capture online attention, but predictive signals favor the status quo.

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Long before Sunday’s vote, Venezuela’s presidential election was a fait accompli. Nicholas Maduro, who has become more autocratic the deeper the country falls into crisis, banned m...

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SecurityLatin America

Is Temer's Military Intervention a Political Game?

Predata signals suggest Brazilians are skeptical of President Temer's extraordinary security decree.

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Brazilians are justifiably wary of the military. The Constitution of 1988 put to rest an army dictatorship with a dark record of torture, arbitrary imprisonment, and extrajudicial ...

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PoliticsLatin America

The Unlikely Persistence of Lula and Pension Reform

Despite a corruption sentence, Brazil's leading presidential candidate says he's not done yet. And will this be the month long-anticipated pension reform passes Congress?

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Investors breathed a sigh of relief two weeks ago when an appeals court upheld a corruption conviction against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, technically barring the former president f...

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PoliticsU.S. and CanadaLatin AmericaAsia

Global Macro Scoreboard: January 28

This week, international online audiences turned their attention to trade issues, the U.S. federal budget and debt, and Brazil's political landscape after an appeals court upheld a corruption ruling against presidential frontrunner Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

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SecurityLatin America

Venezuela's Year for Living Dangerously

Social media pattern analysis points to intensifying insecurity, civil unrest, and potential military action.

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To say Venezuela's crisis is worsening is hardly a unique observation. Recent reports of looting by hungry mobs, cratering oil production, and mass migration to Colombia all paint ...

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PoliticsU.S. and CanadaLatin America

NAFTA Might Just Make it After All

A drop-off in the NAFTA Cancellation Risk Index bodes well for the deal's survival.

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Predata's NAFTA Cancellation Risk Index rose earlier in the week on reports that the Canadians were preparing for the eventuality that the United States would withdraw from the fre...

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PoliticsMarketsU.S. and CanadaLatin America

Global Macro Scoreboard: U.S. Fed, Taxes, & Healthcare

The U.S. Federal Reserve, Tax Reform, and Healthcare topics dominated conversation over the past week, while Bitcoin and Brazilian Politics continue to generate attention.

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SecurityLatin AmericaMiddle EastAsia

Global Macro Scoreboard: North Korea, Venezuela, Greece

This week, the internet turned its attention to China's diplomatic move in North Korea, a default in Venezuela, a debt swap in Greece, and rising tensions in the Saudi-Iran regional cold war.

11-20-17

1. This week, online interest in the North Korea Crisis surged. On Wednesday China sent a high-level official to Pyongyang for the first time in two years. Subsequently, our index ...

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PoliticsMarketsU.S. and CanadaLatin America

Weekly Asset Heatmap: North America

As NAFTA talks resume this week, our predictive signals indicate big moves may be forthcoming in North American currencies -- particularly, a rising risk the peso could soon depreciate. Coupled with still-elevated concern over protectionism in Canada and Mexico, the signals suggest observers are bearish on the prospects for renegotiation.

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A rise in our Federal Reserve, Banxico, and BoC signals suggest big moves in North American currencies within the next month....

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MarketsLatin America

Weekly Asset Heatmap: Brazil

The real could significantly depreciate against the dollar in the next month.

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A Predata signal that anticipates big, unexpected depreciations in the real hit a yearly high, strongly suggesting a big upward move in the USD/BRL pair over the next 30 days....

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