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The Yearly Foreword

Predictive Analytics for Geopolitical Risk

To start the new year, Predata has examined trends from 2018 to reveal what will be most important to track in 2019.

Concern over the escalating US-China trade war dogged the US economy in 2018. After agreeing to a temporary truce on the sidelines of the G20 on December 1, Presidents Trump and Xi...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

Iran Simmers

After the deadliest unrest in 40 years, internet activity suggests political and economic grievances persist.

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Two weeks ago, a sudden increase in gasoline prices set off a wave of anti-government unrest across Iran. The regime responded with a deadly crackdown. It shut off the country’s in...

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PoliticsSecurityEurope

Banks and Economic Grievance in Russia

Web activity points to potential financial sector risk and a resurgent opposition movement.

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This summer, protests broke out in Moscow after several candidates for city council elections were barred from running. After several weeks of demonstrations and a government crack...

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PoliticsSecurityMiddle East

The World Is Watching

As global leaders gather for the UN General Assembly, the Middle East, North Korea, and climate change are dominating the internet.

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This week in New York City, world leaders have gathered for the UN General Assembly. It is a tense time for the planet. An attack on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facility has stoked ...

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PoliticsU.S. and Canada

Hot Signals: The War on Christmas

This week's geopolitical insight

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Each holiday season, the War on Christmas flares over several issues: nativity scenes on government property, secular Starbucks cups, and the semantic choices of presidential holid...

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PoliticsMarketsU.S. and CanadaEuropeAsia

Global Macro Scoreboard: Germany, China, France

Online attention to both German Elections and EU Reform rose, U.S.-China trade concerns resurfaced, Macron's online interest benefits as faith in other Western heads of state falters.

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1. German Elections topped the Global Macro Scoreboard this week after coalition talks between Angela Merkel's CDU, the liberal FDP, and the Greens failed. Increased attention to E...

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PoliticsAsia

Weekly Asset Heatmap: Australia

Predata's signals suggest a big move in the Aussie FX and Australian 10-yr yields in the coming weeks.

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Salient threads in the digital debate over Australian monetary policy that are driving these signals include:The Reserve Bank of Australia sounded rather dovish in its recent rate ...

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