For Britain, It's the Economy Stupid

European Parliamentary elections and Brexit politics dominate headlines, but concerns about the UK economy are rising.


This Thursday, the UK will vote in European elections, a poll that for British voters was never supposed to happen but for Brexit’s delay until October. The circumstances of the election and the ongoing travails of the Tory party – expected to finish a distant fourth behind Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party – dominate the media. But Predata signals show that there may be a more salient story beneath the surface: the economy.

As the signal below shows, attention to macroeconomic issues in the UK – driven by subjects ranging from gilt-edged securities to the energy and fishing sectors – is already at a five-month high.


All the while, close watchers of Brexit in the policy world and in the markets remain relatively inactive, with attention to the key issues at stake will below where it peaked in February and March at the height of the debates in parliament over the Withdrawal Agreement.


All told, markets are already showing jitters over the British economy, and Brexit does not even seem to be front of mind. With the pound already at 2019 lows, markets seem poised to send it even lower once the UK’s Brexit deadlock – and looming risk of a no-deal exit – returns to the fore.