A Crackdown in Hong Kong?

As protests continue, concerns about security and economic factors are driving online attention

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Over the weekend, anti-government protesters in Hong Kong again took to the streets, as a reported 1.7 million demonstrators marched through Victoria Park. Predata signals show that concerns about security— including the possibility of a crackdown by Beijing — and economic factors surrounding the protests are becoming more salient.

When mass demonstrations against the Hong Kong legislature’s proposed extradition bill began, online attention toward Hong Kong — both among Chinese and English speakers — concentrated on subjects related to the government. But as the protests became more violent, the focus shifted to security issues, as attention to the clashes appears to have eclipsed interest in the issues that originally motivated the unrest.

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That heightened focus on security has included apparent concern about a potential crackdown by Beijing. Activity on Chinese-language web pages related to the People’s Armed Police — the Mainland paramilitary force that has amassed in Shenzen across from Hong Kong — surged over the weekend. Even though media have reported on the buildup for several days, only now has the force captured the interest of internet users. 

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At the same time, attention to the Tiananmen Square protests has risen — but only slightly. International media have invoked Tiananmen as an historical analogy to a potential crackdown in Hong Kong. However, activity on Chinese-language web pages about the protests and crackdown has not risen to abnormally high levels. So, despite the attention to the force gathered in Shenzen, it appears that few are entertaining the possibility of a Tiananmen-like event.

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In addition, the potential economic implications of the protest movement appear to have grown more salient. For investors, the concern is apparently whether the unrest may put pressure on the Hong Kong currency peg. Activity on web pages related to various general subjects related to the currency is driving the signal, reflecting broad-based concerns over Hong Kong’s economic outlook.

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For Hong Kong residents, however, the salient economic issue appears to be the city’s lack of affordable housing. Chinese-language interest in Hong Kong’s affordable housing subsidy program was heightened ahead of the protests -- and then surged over the weekend to hit a multi-year high. 

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