Geopolitical risk can have an outsize impact on commodities. Predata tracks millions of relevant social media data points to glean
insights into potential market-moving geopolitical events. Here are some ways Predata’s analytics platform anticipated moves in aluminum, platinum and Brent crude.
As the world’s largest producer and consumer of aluminum, China remains a critical driver for the base metals markets. A recent upward trend in Predata’s Chinese-source driven predictive signal for aluminum preceded major fluctuations in the global price of the metal. China recently said it would close polluting smelters, accounting for 4 million tons of capacity this year. LME aluminum prices are now around 18% higher than the average for last year.
The Predata platinum signal can be used to
supplement trading insights. A portfolio consisting only of long platinum
trades following significant spikes in Predata’s platinum signal generated a
76% return going back to January 2010. Over the same time period, the spot market for platinum declined by almost 40%.
As the tumultuous leadership shakeup over the
last few weeks has demonstrated, political risk in Saudi
Arabia has a major bearing on global oil markets. A
portfolio consisting only of long Brent Crude trades following significant
spikes in Predata’s signal tracking digital activity related to
the government of Saudi Arabia generated a 161% return going back to 2010. Spot
prices for crude declined by almost 50% over this same time period.
Beyond commodity and energy markets, there are many ways to get unique trading insights using Predata’s alternative data.
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