Getting Ahead of Commodity Price Moves

Social media information related to major geopolitical events can inform trading strategies for aluminum, platinum, oil and more.


Geopolitical risk can have an outsize impact on commodities. Predata tracks millions of relevant social media data points to glean insights into potential market-moving geopolitical events. Here are some ways Predata’s analytics platform anticipated moves in aluminum, platinum and Brent crude.   

The China Factor in Aluminum

As the world’s largest producer and consumer of aluminum, China remains a critical driver for the base metals markets. A recent upward trend in Predata’s Chinese-source driven predictive signal for aluminum preceded major fluctuations in the global price of the metal. China recently said it would close polluting smelters, accounting for 4 million tons of capacity this year. LME aluminum prices are now around 18% higher than the average for last year.


Picking Up Platinum Chatter

The Predata platinum signal can be used to supplement trading insights. A portfolio consisting only of long platinum trades following significant spikes in Predata’s platinum signal generated a 76% return going back to January 2010. Over the same time period, the spot market for platinum declined by almost 40%.   


Saudi Turmoil Moves Brent Crude

As the tumultuous leadership shakeup over the last few weeks has demonstrated, political risk in Saudi Arabia has a major bearing on global oil markets. A portfolio consisting only of long Brent Crude trades following significant spikes in Predata’s signal tracking digital activity related to the government of Saudi Arabia generated a 161% return going back to 2010. Spot prices for crude declined by almost 50% over this same time period.   


Beyond commodity and energy markets, there are many ways to get unique trading insights using Predata’s alternative data.

Get free Predata Research and Insights in your email weekly.