Global Macro Scoreboard

Global Macro Scoreboard: Prelude to (Trade) War?

Tension over U.S.-China trade relations is growing, as two Trump cabinet secretaries visited Beijing last week.


The Scoreboard shows the global macro issues generating the most interest and momentum in the digital realm based on Predata signals that monitor online conversations about each issue. Signals are built based on digital traffic (in every available language) relevant to each issue and then correlated to a master signal covering all of the issues. The strength of the correlation, shown on the y-axis, determines an issue's rank on the Scoreboard.

This week's Scoreboard reflected increased market attention to issues related to the U.S.-China trade relationship, with both Protectionism and U.S.-China Trade War registering major gains. Though North Korea continues to dominate news headlines, potential economic disruption between the two powers could prove more consequential to markets. With a U.S. investigation into intellectual property infringement continuing to rankle Chinese officials, Trump's Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross met with Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing last week. Mr. Ross pressed for major changes to what he called a “lopsided” trade relationship. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson visited shortly thereafter to discuss North Korea and trade.


Predata backtest shows that during the last year, heightened volatility in the US-China Trade Regime signal, which captures concern over protectionism, has preceded gains in the CNY/USD currency pair.