Terrorism Risk in Somalia Rising

A signal that anticipated last October's deadly Mogadishu bombings is trending upward.

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A Predata signal trained to anticipate terrorist bombings in Somalia has leapt in recent days. The prediction value is currently at 45 percent, which means our algorithms estimate the likelihood of an attack in the next two weeks is a coin flip. The sudden rise in the signal is notable; just 10 days ago, the prediction value was a mere 2 percent. 

Signal activity of a similar magnitude occurred in early October, ahead of the deadliest terror bombing in Mogadishu in several years. The signal remained elevated, and even began to rise again, ahead of a follow-on attack two weeks later. Both attacks were connected to Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group highly active in the region. Additional signals trained on terrorist incidents specifically within Mogadishu, and on attacks perpetrated by Al-Shabaab, have also surged in recent days.