Istanbul Terror Risk Rising

After Erdogan's swearing in, climbing predictive signal points to higher likelihood of terrorism.


A Predata predictive signal indicates that Istanbul faces heightened risk of a terrorist incident within the next month. The signal, which anticipates the likelihood of a terror-related event such as an attack or foiled plot incident, began rising near the end of last month and has reached its highest point in more than 100 days. 


This recent spike came as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was sworn in for a new term with enhanced powers in Ankara on Monday. Security nationwide has been tight even by Turkish standards ahead of elections held in late June. An easing of the crackdown could mean increased opportunity for terrorism. 

The signal previously spiked in March when the Turkish government foiled a plot by suspected PKK members ahead of the annual Nowruz festival, often marked by violent clashes between Kurdish protestors and security forces. While historically this signal has anticipated attacks perpetrated by various groups, the recent spike was by-and-large driven by activity on sources related to Kurdish issues.