2018 U.S. Midterms Outlook

Trade and foreign policy signals rise on announcement of new USMCA deal


The announcement of the new trilateral trade deal between the US, Canada, and Mexico sent Predata's NAFTA signal soaring. Some voters may see USMCA as yet another front of the brewing global trade war. On the day President Trump announced the deal, digital interest in trade war topics rose as high as it did when the US announced $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports on September 16. NAFTA and the administration’s ‘America First’ policy have come to drive the foreign policy signal as well, showing just how pervasive trade issues are across different campaign fronts.

Looking ahead, a Predata signal anticipating the likelihood of escalating measures in the trade war between the US and China have held steady since the announced tariffs, suggesting new US measures are not out of the question before the Midterms in November.


Trending: The Supreme Court and Women's Health

For many observing the Supreme Court nomination fight, women’s health issues continue to be top of mind. Unsurprisingly, digital interest in the Supreme Court climbed during the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation battle, with the signal for women’s health issues rising along with it. Interest in Clarence Thomas, who faced sexual harassment allegations during his confirmation, is among the top drivers of the Supreme Court signal.


Not Trending: Economic Issues

Despite strong economic performance and an overwhelmingly positive October jobs report, digital interest in economic issues has held steady. Interest in President Trump’s hallmark legislative achievement, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, did not budge despite the good news on the employment front.