Venezuela's Year for Living Dangerously

Social media pattern analysis points to intensifying insecurity, civil unrest, and potential military action.

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To say Venezuela's crisis is worsening is hardly a unique observation. Recent reports of looting by hungry mobs, cratering oil production, and mass migration to Colombia all paint a grim picture. And according to our risk signals (above), the outlook continues to be bleak. Based on predictive patterns in Venezuelan social and collaborative media conversation, the risk of civil unrest, security disturbances, and military actions have all been rising since the start of the year.

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Further, our Venezuela crisis index has risen sixfold this year to a level last seen in November when the government missed interest payments on sovereign bond issues. The heightened signal activity suggests country observers are increasingly concerned about the country's economic stability.