Weekly Asset Heatmap

Weekly Asset Heatmap: Brazil

The real could significantly depreciate against the dollar in the next month.


A Predata signal that anticipates big, unexpected depreciations in the real hit a yearly high, strongly suggesting a big upward move in the USD/BRL pair over the next 30 days.

Salient threads in the digital debate driving this movement include:
  • Joesley Batista, co-owner of JBS SA, the world's largest meat processing company, was arrested on Sunday by order of the Supreme Court after a leaked recording suggested he had withheld information from federal prosecutors in his plea deal. Batista had avoided prosecution for corruption by testifying to bribing several politicians, including President Michel Temer.
  • JBS sold a subsidiary in the UK for $1 billion, as it sheds assets to deal with upcoming debt payments and the corruption case.
  • The volume of cash ($16.4 m) seized by the Federal Police in an apartment connected to former minister Geddel Vieira Lima was so large that seven money-counting machines took more than five hours to complete the counting.
  • The interminable political crisis discrediting the established political class has caused a deluge of wannabe political parties to seek political status in next year's general election.
Additionally, Predata's signal for measuring volatility related to Brazil's regulatory bureaucracy spiked in recent days.
At the time of writing, the USDBRL was trading at 3.1044 with a 1-month forward rate of 3.116.

The Central Bank of Brazil next meets on October 25.