With Trump planning to announce by November 3 his choice to helm the Fed, attention to Jerome Powell and John Taylor on social and collaborative media has been elevated for the past month. Interest in previous frontrunner Kevin Warsh has tanked. And despite reports that she had become a plausible candidate, interest in Janet Yellen has flatlined. These signals don't necessarily point to a greater likelihood one candidate will be chosen over another, but they do show which candidate is garnering more interest in the digital realm.
In the five days before Trump announced his choice for Secretary of State last December, Predata's measure of the two components that comprise engagement on social media — chatter (views) and contestation (comments and edits) — both surged for Rex Tillerson. Social media for other candidates, such as Bob Corker, John Bolton, and Jon Huntsman, did not experience similar levels of engagement.
As of today's writing, chatter for both Powell and Taylor is elevated. Yet, neither is experiencing increased levels of contestation. This trend could mean that insiders — who may make advanced edits ahead of a nominee's rollout — still don't know who Trump plans to pick.
The FED next meets on November 1.
At the time of our writing, the DXY was trading at 93.827. U.S. 10-yr currently yields 2.37% with a forward rate of 2.40%.
On October 10, our signals suggested that NAFTA concerns might lead to a depreciation in the peso. At the time of our writing, the USDMXN was trading at 18.67 with a 1-month forward rate of 18.77. In line with our expectations, the USDMXN closed at a 5-month high the next day.
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