DEVELOPMENTS since we wrote about the possible impeachments of Michel Temer and Donald Trump last week have confirmed that of the two embattled presidents, it's Temer who's at far greater risk of being removed from office. If the distraction of Trump's first overseas trip served to take some of the heat off his ailing administration, despite fresh revelations in the investigation of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign, Temer battled on last week in the face of protests and reports his coalition allies have started to debate his eventual replacement.
Online attention to the four figures most often raised as potential successors to Temer — Cármen Lúcia, the chief justice of the Supreme Federal Court; Rodrigo Maia, the speaker of the lower house and a key Temer ally; former chief justice Nelson Jobim; and Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles — has peaked in recent days, though there's no groundswell of interest in any single official over the others (see above).
Last week's protests, to be fair, were limited to union and militant left-wing groups, and exhibited none of the mass middle-class rage that animated the demonstrations against Dilma Rousseff last year. Predata's society sector signal for Brazil — which reflects general social unrest — has remained relatively muted, reflecting the isolated nature of the anti-Temer movement. The government sector signal, on the other hand, continues to be elevated, suggesting this is a crisis likely to find its resolution in the chambers of power rather than on the streets.
Aaron Timms is Predata's Director of Research. Contact: firstname.lastname@example.org.